A North-Korean drone violated South Korea’s airspace for the first time in five years prompting the latter to scramble its fighter jets, attack helicopters and other assets including the AWACS, Air Refueller and surveillance drones. In the response, South Korea lost its light attack aircraft, the KA-1 which crashed shortly after takeoff. South Korea has been undertaking a major overhaul of its fighter aircraft fleet, including the purchase of forty F-35s, along with the ongoing trials of its indigenous stealth fighter, the KF-21 Boramae. South Korea has announced a major upgrade to its current F-15K Slam Eagle fleet of sixty aircraft for USD 2.7 billion. The package includes the installation of new AESA radar, electronic warfare suite, mission computer systems, cockpit displays and helmet mounted sights. The upgrade of the fleet will commence in 2023 and the fleet will be fully upgraded by 2024.
Analysis
The fighter aircraft market has seen a proliferation of stealth fighter aircraft with the US, Russia, and China leading the way. Though the F-22 has only flown in the colors of the USAF, the F-35 on the other hand is now operated by multiple NATO and non-NATO allies. Countries that have been close allies of America and were previous recipients of F-16s and F-15s have been given the option to upgrade their fleet to the F-35. Simultaneously Russia has been operating the SU-57, which was offered to India, Vietnam, Turkey, and Algeria but found no takers. China is operating the J-20 and has shown interest in exporting the aircraft to Pakistan, however there is no clarity on the whereabouts of this proposal. Meanwhile, South Korea, Turkey, India, Japan, and Sweden are at various stages of manufacturing their indigenous fifth generation stealth fighter aircraft, and their entry into the stealth market is less than a decade away. The market for stealth aircraft will be buzzing with options by 2030, yet countries are prioritizing the modernization of their existing fleets of fourth generation aircraft, including air forces that are already operating fifth generation aircrafts.
Recent conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict shed light on the effectiveness of fourth generation fighter in performing air strikes and air dominance roles. The aircraft are capable of carrying higher payloads than stealth fighters, are easier and cheaper to maintain during times of conflict when supply chains, maintenance and repair, and airframe usage are put through constant use. One of the obvious reasons why Russia actively benches its SU-57 fleet in the Ukraine war is because the per flight costs is tremendously steeper when the same mission is flown by a fourth-generation fighter. This has a spiraling effect, as it gives the pilots of fourth generation fighter aircraft more hands on experience than their ‘stealth-y’ colleagues. With higher operational participation, air forces place demands for spares and parts for the fourth-generation aircraft, creating a cycle of operational usage followed by fleet upkeep and maintenance. Even Air Forces that have stealth fighter capabilities continue to re-strengthen their fourth-generation fleet, as has been the case with the USAF, Russian Air Force, ROKAF, PLAAF, and other air forces that are operating the F-35.
Air Forces that are close to acquiring fifth generation fighter aircraft like the IAF, Turkish Air Force, JASDF, RAF, and RAAF, are all undertaking major overhauls to their existing fleets of fourth generation fighter aircraft with better radars, weapon systems, electronic warfare suites, cockpit displays and pilot-aircraft-user-interfaces. These upgrades have increased the operational life of fourth generation fighter aircraft like the F-16, F-15, F-18, Rafale and the SU-30 closer to 2050, with some being extended till 2070. Air Forces are highly keen on inducting stealth aircraft yet are spending billions on ensuring the operational life of existing fourth generation fleets are extended for the next three decades. This is because these aircraft are reliable, combat tested, easy on the pocket, and are capable of matching the stealth fighters in all aspects of mission performance, except for masking their radar signature. The USAF, which first operated a stealth fighter has been unable to convince the Pentagon and the Government to re-start the production line for the F-22 and is keen on utilizing the F-15 EX in place of the F-22. Due to budget cuts, the USAF also has to upgrade its six-hundred strong fleet of F-16s under the Block 70/72 programme. This upgrade will equip the F-16 with the same AESA radar, electronic warfare suite, cockpit display and 22 other modifications that it will share with the F-22, increasing the life-span of the Viper till 2070.
Air Forces world over will continue to find value in stealth fighters and wealthy countries will pursue the purchase, procurement and production of fifth generation aircraft. However, the priority for these Air Forces continues to be the upgradation of their existing fleets and modernizing the fourth-generation aircraft. There is no doubt that stealth fighters will form the sharp point of the spear, but the fourth-generation aircraft will continue to remain the shaft, the socket, and the blade of the spear.
Short Take-Offs
Headlines from the world of aviation.
A KA-1 of the South Korean Air Force crashed when it was trying to intercept a North Korean drone which had violated South Korea’s airspace. Both the pilots are safe and stable and no civilian casualties were reported.
A Mi-17 of the Nigerian Army crashed in Niamey, the capital of Niger. All three crewmembers on the aircraft were killed in the incident. The Nigerian military has launched an investigation into the incident.
The Israeli Air Force has grounded 11 of its F-35 aircraft after the F-35 of the US Navy crashed in Texas earlier this month.
A PLAN J-11 performed an ‘unsafe intercept’ of a US RC-135 in international airspace over the South China Sea. The J-11 flew 20 meters in front of the American reconnaissance aircraft and was armed with two PL-8 IR guided and two PL-12 radar guided missiles.
Still of the Week
Happy New Year!
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9441af06-11bd-4ffc-862b-73c43f7d85ac_3888x2592.jpeg)
Fifth and sixth Gen ac are very expensive to build/ maintain/ operate. So, most countries don’t have the budgets! A happy mix of High Tech and medium Tech would be beneficial for most airforces as cost/ benefit / sortie generation rate/ turn around times/ MTBF/ ability to operate from non- home bases/ weight of attack and many more factors are analysed by operators/ experts. It is cheaper to keep 4th Gen airframes upgraded with latest tech to achieve the required mix.
Well argued Rohan, as usual. Keep it up👍