The Indian Air Force has requested the government to possibly lease 6 TU-160 Blackjack aircraft from Russia. The long-range strategic bomber often referred to as the “White Swan” is Russia’s most technically advanced and modern long-range bomber which has the capability of going supersonic while carrying hypersonic glide weapons. The aircraft which was first inducted in 1987 has a swing-wing configuration which allows the aircraft to achieve speeds of Mach 2+. The aircraft is flown by a two-pilot crew and has the world record for the world’s longest non-stop flight by a military aircraft covering close to 12,000 kilometers in Autumn 2020. The four-engine aircraft is the largest bomber currently and has an internal bay to conceal the weapons it carries. For Russia the aircraft serves as a continental bomber which can fly deep into enemy territory and deliver lethal bombs, including nuclear weapons.
Analysis
The Indian Air Force’s proposal for the acquisition of 6 Blackjacks has all the seasonings of its shift in focus from Pakistan to China. IAF has previously operated only 1 strategic bomber, the Canberra, which was used extensively during the Annexation of Goa in 1961, the 1965 Indo-Pak War and the 1971 Liberation of Bangladesh. Post that, the IAF has only relied on its fighter aircraft fleets to conduct strategic bombing roles and missions with the country’s fleet being largely based on its Western front towards Pakistan. With increasing tensions against China and an ongoing standoff, the IAF is re-positioning its strategic thinking to effectively manage China’s increasing bold tactics. The PLAAF currently has 3 times more fighter aircraft than the IAF and already has H-6 strategic bomber fleet which allows China strategic advantage over India.
Initial reports suggest that India’s leased Tu-160s will be placed in Central India which gives them the capacity to fly to Central China and back. This would allow the aircraft to stay clear from the range of Chinese cruise missiles unless PLAAF manages deep penetration which is highly unlikely. The positioning also allows Tu-160s to conduct air to air refueling just before entering Chinese airspace giving them more access to China’s primary airbases and strategic assets which are closer to the East Coast facing Taiwan. There is no doubt that the move is strategic and will give IAF a crucial deep-strike capability, not just in mainland China but across Indo-Pacific. However, there are immediate crucial issues that the IAF has to work on before it acquires long-range strategic bombers, and this is the fast-depleting fighter aircraft fleet. With only 30 squadrons operating out of the desired and required strength of 42, IAF’s backbone fighting capabilities are seriously lacking. The IAF will also retire its remaining Mig-21s by 2025 and it’s Mig-29 fleet by 2030. The Jaguar and Mirage, two of the IAF’s most reliable air-to-ground aircraft fleets are also slated to retire by 2030. By the end of this decade the IAF will be left with close to 300 Su-30 MKIs, two squadrons of Rafale and about 100 Tejas aircraft (If HAL can deliver on time) unless urgent action is taken for procuring fighter planes withing the next five to eight years.
Though the call for acquiring Tu-160s is a step in the right direction for the IAF, it must first prioritise the deal for 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA). This would enable a quick replacement of the dwindling fighter fleet of the IAF. Meanwhile the IAF can continue towards the finalization of leasing Tu-160, though these two should remain mutually exclusive. Currently, the Russia-Ukraine war has massively affected the maintenance and repairs of the India’s Su-30 and there is uncertainty on how Russia will deliver on any future deals. This leaves the market open for America to offer its B-1B Lancer long range bomber to the IAF. In 2021, the USAF flew the B-1B Lancer for the first time in India with the IAF Tejas as its wingman. The B-1B is America’s answer for the Russian Tu-160 and the two aircraft are quite similar in their roles and performances. The Tu-160 is slightly larger and faster, and has a better combat range, whereas the B-1 has a higher capacity of carrying payload. However, between the two, the choice for the IAF will clearly be the Tu-160 (while being sanctioned by US this time, unlike with the S-400 deal), as it will be easy to equip the Tu-160 with the long range air-to-air Brahmos NG missile and the in-development Brahmos II Hypersonic Missile which is currently being co-developed by Russia and India. Acquiring Tu-160s will give the IAF and India’s strategic forces a major boost in possessing deep strike & mass destruction capabilities against China, however I do not believe this deal is urgent or should be treated with more urgency than the MRFA.
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Good one as usual. A few points:
1. India has been seeking dedicated bombers after Canberra ac were retired.
2. Leased aircraft have only limited usage, as there are many end use restrictions.
3. US Laws do not permit any non-USA/NATO wpn to be integrated into their ac, and also US wpns cannot be integrated on Russian ac.
4. Which way the Russians would tilt in case of India-China conflict? So, would India be able to use these Strategic bombers of Soviet era?
5. Only B-2 has the stealth capability to penetrate contested air space. So, safer tactical routes required for B-1B/ Tu-160.
6. What is the Flightline availability/ Mission worthiness of these 40 yrs old/ cold war machines?
7. You have correctly argued that MRFA /AMCA should be India's priority considering serious depletion in strength/numbers of fighter squadrons.