The Curious Case of Turkey’s F-16s, Short-Take Offs, and More

American President Joe Biden is stuck in a dilemma regarding the sale of forty Block-70 F-16s to Turkey ever since more than half of the US Senate urged him against this transaction. Turkey continues to block the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO and seeks the F-16 Block 70 as a viable and suitable form option for signing the ascension of the two Nordic countries into NATO. The American Senators have urged President Biden to not agree to the sale of the fighters until Turkey agrees to the inclusion of Sweden and Finland into NATO, which is now turning into a situation of who gives in first in this trade-off dilemma. In a deal valued at USD 20 Billion, Ankara is seeking two squadrons of the most modern F-16 Block 70. The deal will also include 79 modernization kits for the F-16s that Turkey already operates. Turkey had first pitched this deal in 2021, two years after it was kicked out from the F-35 programme for procuring S-400s from Russia, despite warnings from Washington D.C. America and Turkey have locked diplomatic horns, however there are multiple layers to this deal which will send ripples across Europe.

The first F-16 Block 70 on its maiden flight trials for the Bahrain Air Force. Image Credits- Twitter

Analysis

America and Turkey have been in a diplomatic stand-off since 2019 when Ankara purchased S-400s from Russia, ignoring Washington D.C’s warnings of a diplomatic fallout. The Trump administration was quick to remove Turkey from the F-35 programme and simultaneously blocked the sale of newer F-16s to Ankara. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, a populist Islamic leader, confidently claimed that Turkey did not need newer F-16s and was developing its own fleet of the TAI TFX, Turkey’s own stealth fighter aircraft. However, Erdogan has gone back on his word, with his administration seeking to reset ties with the Biden administration while hoping to procure the new F-16 Block 70 in exchange for the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO. American lawmakers are vary of the deal and are urging President Biden to re-consider his position on Turkey. US Senators have flagged Turkey’s struggling economy which has a current inflation rate of 66.8%. US lawmakers have also raised concerns over Erdogan’s jailing of journalists, political opposition leaders, and increasing tensions with Greece, a NATO member and trusted ally for America.

Turkey wants to gain diplomatic leverage by asking for F-16s in exchange for the acceptance of Sweden and Finland into NATO. However, recent events have made the decision extremely challenging for Erdogan. Recently in Stockholm, a Swedish Right-Wing political leader burned a copy of the Quran in front of Turkey’s embassy, sparking widespread against Sweden across Turkey and other Islamic countries. Erdogan also criticized Sweden for supporting the independence movement of the Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK) which is designated as terror outfit in Turkey. Erdogan has also set forth a condition for the two Nordic countries to extradite 130 political opponents to Turkey in order to be considered for the NATO membership, a demand that has left a bitter taste in Sweden and Finland. Turkey’s conflict with Greece has further soured Ankara’s relations with other NATO countries preventing Turkey’s ascension into the European Union.

The F-16 has been instrumental in shaping Turkey’s Air Power along with the rise of its indigenous aircraft industry. Turkey has been able to successfully mate indigenous weapon systems on the F-16 after it was denied weapon sales by America. In 2021, Turkey successfully test fired its indigenously developed GÖKDOĞAN, a BVR missile with a range of 65km, and the BOZDOĞAN, a WVR missile with a range of 25km. Image Credits- President Erdogan’s Office

For the Biden administration, this is a tricky politico-diplomatic debacle, however when looked at through the economic lens it is a win-win for America. If Biden is able to convince Turkey to accept Sweden and Finland into NATO, it will enable the F-16 Block 70 deal worth USD 20 billion to go through. Simultaneously Greece has been requesting for purchasing F-35s from the US, despite having purchased two squadrons of the Rafale. Athens is aiming to establish an air-power edge over Ankara and a request for F-35s will not be denied by the Biden administration. Many US lawmakers already support the sale of F-35s to Greece, while opposing the sale of F-16s to Turkey, however, in case Biden’s team manages to convince Turkey for accepting Sweden and Finland into NATO, it will have to make the sale for the F-16s. This move may certainly not sit well with many US lawmakers; though, it does mean more business for America’s military-industrial complex.

The inclusion of Sweden and Finland is extremely crucial to America. Apart from creating a stronger front against Russia, America has secured the sale of F-35s with both the countries, allowing it to grow its market into Sweden, which has previously relied on indigenously built SAAB aircraft. From the Biden administration’s perspective, careful and delicate balancing of diplomacy with Turkey, Sweden, Finland, and Greece could open up into multiple successful deals for aircraft, a lucrative opportunity that Washington D.C wouldn’t want to miss. Additionally, Turkey would get its F-16s, Sweden & Finland would get their NATO membership, and a snubbish Greece would get the F-35s keeping Greece’s air-superiority over Ankara. Though Biden would have to jostle domestic sentiment, the case of the sale of F-16s to Turkey has an underlying benefit to America, as more arms sales would create more domestic jobs and give a boost to the economy.

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Short Take-Offs

Headlines from the world of aviation.

1. Two Su-30 MKI and one Mirage-2000 of the Indian Air Force crashed in an apparent mid-air collision during a two versus one training simulation. Two pilots from the Su-30 MKI ejected safely and were rushed to the hospital. The Mirage 2000 pilot sustained fatal injuries. The Indian Air Force has ordered an inquiry into the incident.

2. A Su-22 of the Vietnamese Air-Defence Air-Force crashed in the Northern part of the country. The pilot was unable to eject in time and was fatally injured in the crash. The Ministry of Defence has ordered an investigation into the incident.  

3. A trainer F-4 of the Hellenic Air Force crashed in the Ionian Sea. The Co-pilot’s body was found during the rescue operation while the other pilot is still missing. A major search and rescue operation is currently underway. An investigation has been ordered for the cause of the fatal accident.

4. A high-altitude Chinese spy balloon has been hovering over the skies in Montana, USA. The Department of Defence issued a statement against the downing of the balloon citing a risk to the safety and security of civilians on ground due to possible debris.  

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Still of the Week

A Rafale M with an Exocet taking off the Charles de Gaulle. Image Credits- Reddit