The Sixth-Generation Fighter: Futuristic or near reality?, Short Take-Offs, and more
The US Air Force’s Next Generation Air Domination (NGAD) Program’s Director Gen. Mark D. Kelly stated that China was on a steady progress to developing its own sixth generation super-stealth fighter which has been kept secretive but has the potential to “yield the same kind of air combat system of systems that the US Air Force is pursuing” with its B-21 Raider programme. Gen. Kelly re-iterated how the sixth gen super stealth fighter was more than a manned fighter platform and has an ecosystem of air dominance, enemy AD penetration and self-defence mechanism which includes a stealth unmanned wingman, collaborative drones, new weapons, sensors and communication apertures. Gen. Kelly added that he believes the Chinese counterparts are keeping pace with the USAF’s NGAD program which is set to deliver the first batch of aircraft by 2030.
Analysis
The PLAAF has been on a fast-tracked journey to indigenously modernise its air-fleet, much on the lines of the US and Russia, however, it is evident that the current PLAAF outperforms the Russian air-fleet, at least on paper. True testimony to the PLAAF’s capabilities cannot be deducted unless there is a call to action where the PLAAF is put to a challenging test. Nevertheless, the PLAAF has managed to out-scale Russian aircraft production in terms of numbers and quality with the J-16 aircraft being touted as a better, more sophisticated version to the SU-27. The J-20 has already been deployed and tested in the high-altitude condition in the Tibetan Plateau and along the Taiwan Strait where it frequently conducts maritime operations and is being produced at a faster rate than Russia’s SU-57.
The US and China are the only two countries that are on course to acquire a sixth-generation super stealth fighter aircraft and will be the only two countries to operate such an aircraft all throughout the next decade. Other major air powers like France, Japan, India, UK, Turkey and South Korea are just beginning to produce indigenous fifth generation fighters and are anywhere between ten to fifteen years behind the Americans and the Chinese. Ongoing conflicts and a crash in the global economic system has put immense strain on the deep pockets of smaller air powers such as Sweden, Taiwan, Australia, Israel etc., who have had some success in the past with indigenisation, however an indigenous stealth fighter seems highly unlikely.
The biggest take-away from a race to dominate the aerosphere is that China and America will be the only two super-power competitors in the next decade in matters of achieving sheer technological advantage over friends and foes. A race towards super-stealth will multiply the ongoing tensions between US and China, something that is both good and bad for military aviation. The competition allows democratic countries to work together in order to create a mutually beneficial aircraft production industry where production and technological advancement can be driven on mutual understanding, and trust. As history has shown us, America does not shy away from proliferating its most advanced technology, particularly to NATO countries as the recent sales of F-35 aircraft to select European nations, South Korea and Japan have shown. Though a proliferation of the sixth-generation fighter aircraft may be far from reality, America’s NGAD will definitely be seen flying alongside its European counterparts once the aircraft is fully operational.
The Peking story compared to the American will be quite different albeit with a few similar caveats, particularly when it comes to proliferation. China will like to monopolise on its technology by beginning the proliferation of its fifth-generation fighter, first to Pakistan, and perhaps even Iran and North Korea. However, China will not enjoy a large allied group which will certainly restrict China to keeping its security apparatus within its own borders, having very few friends to rely on. China has been very strategic in playing the region, and will look to share its stealth technology with Pakistan as a counter to India, if Pakistan is able to remain afloat economically.
Regardless of the proliferation by either America or China, it is certain that these two countries will be the first to acquire and operate a sixth-generation super stealth fighter, and for the first time in history since WWII America’s air-dominance competitor is not Russia, but China. This will certainly mark a new era in air-power and the complexity arising out of the air-dominance race will definitely lead to the first Cold War of the 21st century.
Short Take-Offs
Headlines from the world of aviation.
The US Air Force scrambled its F-15s to shoot down an Iranian Mohajer-6 Armed drone which was approaching an American Airbase in Erbil, Iraq.
Chinese J-15 fighter aircraft directly flew over a US Navy destroyer in the Taiwan Strait and an in-cockpit video released by the Chinese shows the destroyer below. [Video in link]
Last week Russia lost one SU-24, one SU-34, and two SU-30 fighter aircraft to Ukrainian air defences. No information on the whereabout of the pilots is known or was released by Ukrainian officials.
A Pakistan Army helicopter crashed in the Balochistan province and all crew on board died in the crash including two officers and fours other ranks.
Still of the Week
6th Gen Fighters with Buddy UCAVs wingmen is some distance away. Let the 6th Gen Fighter emerge. Being cost and tech intensive only few countries can afford to develop. While 6th Gen fighters are in development / trials - probable 7th Gen fighters would be on drawing boards. As per aviation news, China is fast catching up on Tech with USA. With deep pockets only these two nations have money to invest. Russia is far away and after Ukraine war, would not be financially strong to put up a reasonable 6th Gen fighter in near time frame. Future may look like the movie- Independence Day!